How accurate is CrowdProof?
We do not ask you to take our word for it. Every number on this page comes from a simulation whose outcome was scored against real survey responses, and it updates live as new validations land.
We only publish this number once at least 3 independent validations are in. So far: 0. Run a simulation and validate it against your real audience to be part of it.
Backtest: predicted vs actual
Each case is a real public launch or decision with a documented outcome. We run the neutral pre-launch framing through the engine, reduce the crowd's final stance split to a positive / negative / mixed call (net lean past 10 points is directional, otherwise mixed), and score it against what actually happened.
These 12 known-outcome events are queued for backtesting. A headline hit rate publishes once at least 5 are scored.
Public backlash was immediate and fierce; the company reversed course and reintroduced the original formula within about 79 days.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are changing our classic cola formula to a new, sweeter taste and replacing the original recipe on shelves nationwide.
Source: Widely reported, e.g. The New York Times, July 1985.
Customers revolted, Netflix lost roughly 800,000 subscribers, and the Qwikster spin-off was cancelled weeks after being announced.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are separating our DVD-by-mail service into a new brand and raising the price of a combined DVD and streaming plan by about 60 percent.
Source: Netflix Q3 2011 letter to shareholders; contemporaneous press.
Gamers reacted with sustained backlash before launch; Microsoft reversed the DRM and always-online policies within weeks.
Neutral stimulus tested
Our new console will require a periodic internet check-in and will restrict how used and shared physical games can be played.
Source: Microsoft policy reversal statement, June 2013.
The redesign drew widespread ridicule online and Gap restored the original logo within about a week.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are replacing our familiar wordmark with a new logo: the brand name in a plain font next to a small blue gradient square.
Source: Gap press statement, October 2010.
Sales fell about 20 percent in roughly two months and the company reverted to the original packaging.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are redesigning our orange juice packaging, replacing the orange-with-a-straw image with a plain glass of juice and updated typography.
Source: Contemporaneous reporting, e.g. Advertising Age, 2009.
The console versions shipped badly broken; Sony pulled it from the PlayStation Store and the studio offered refunds.
Neutral stimulus tested
Our long-awaited open-world game launches today on last-gen and current-gen consoles as well as PC, at full price.
Source: Sony/CD Projekt statements, December 2020.
Adoption was explosive; it became one of the fastest products ever to reach an estimated 100 million users.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are releasing a free conversational AI assistant you can chat with in your browser to answer questions and draft text.
Source: Widely reported user-growth estimates, early 2023.
Despite skepticism from some industry incumbents, consumer demand was strong and it reshaped the smartphone market.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are introducing a touchscreen phone with no physical keyboard that combines a phone, an iPod, and an internet device.
Source: Apple launch, January 2007; subsequent sales reporting.
It became a global phenomenon within days, topping app charts and driving record engagement.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are launching a free mobile game that uses your phone's camera and location to let you find and catch creatures in the real world.
Source: App-store rankings and press coverage, July 2016.
It went viral through social sharing, growing from a handful of players to millions in weeks.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are offering a simple free daily word puzzle with one shared answer for everyone and shareable emoji-grid results.
Source: The New York Times acquisition coverage, early 2022.
Reception was genuinely split: reviewers praised the touch-first design on tablets while many desktop users criticised the removal of the Start menu, and the company restored Start-button behaviour in the Windows 8.1 update.
Neutral stimulus tested
Our next operating system is built around a full-screen, touch-first tile interface and replaces the familiar desktop Start menu with a new Start screen.
Source: Contemporaneous reviews, 2012-2013, and Microsoft's Windows 8.1 changes.
The launch drew immediate, large-scale user protest (hundreds of thousands joined opposition groups and the company posted a public response) even as engagement with the feature climbed and it became central to the product.
Neutral stimulus tested
We are adding a home page that automatically shows a running feed of your friends' recent activity and profile changes as they happen.
Source: Contemporaneous reporting and Facebook's public response, September 2006.
How the score is calculated
- You run a simulation and the agents settle into a final distribution of positive, neutral, and negative stances.
- You collect real responses to the same idea, either through a CrowdProof survey link (no signup for respondents) or your own survey tool.
- We compare the two answer breakdowns side by side. A score of 100 means the simulated crowd split exactly the way real people did; every percentage point of mismatch costs a point.
The aggregate above averages that score across every validated simulation on the platform. Tagging a simulation with an industry at creation adds its validation to the per-industry breakdown. Want the receipts? Browse published case studies of individual validations.